Seniors hoping to learn how much their Social Security benefits will increase next year will have to wait a little longer than expected. The federal government shutdown that began on October 1st has delayed the release of key inflation data that is used to calculate the 2026 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA).
Under normal circumstances, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) would have released the September inflation report on October 15th, followed shortly by the Social Security Administration’s (SSA) official COLA announcement. But this year’s shutdown disrupted that timeline. BLS has now rescheduled the release of September’s Consumer Price Index for October 24, allowing the SSA to meet its statutory deadline to announce the COLA by November 1.
Analysts expect a modest benefit increase for 2026, around 2.7% to 2.8%, translating to roughly $50 more per month for the average beneficiary. For retirees receiving about $2,008 per month, that could mean an increase of about $54 monthly starting in January 2026.
Still, the delay has caused frustration among seniors who rely on these numbers for financial planning. “It’s deeply concerning that critical information needed for their financial planning is being held up due to political gridlock,” said Shannon Benton, executive director of the Senior Citizens League.
Adding to the anxiety, retirees could face a steep rise in Medicare Part B premiums next year. Forecasts suggest premiums may jump from $185 to $206.50 per month, one of the largest increases in the program’s history.
While Social Security’s “hold harmless” provision ensures benefits won’t decrease because of rising Medicare costs, the higher premiums could absorb much of the upcoming COLA increase, leaving many seniors with little to no net gain.
For now, the wait continues. The official COLA figure will be released once the September inflation data becomes available, now expected on October 24, which will give millions of Americans a clearer picture of what to expect for their 2026 Social Security benefits. Read more about this important issue here.